Mississippi’s 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases remains under 500

New reported cases of COVID-19 in Mississippi dropped to below 500 again Saturday after a spike Friday. Saturday is the 24th consecutive day of fewer than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases reported statewide.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported four new COVID-19 cases Saturday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 1,352, and the county’s death toll is 47.

Statewide, MSDH reported 445 new COVID-19 cases Saturday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 89,620. The seven-day average of new is 449, about half of where it was a month ago.

MSDH reported Saturday that 15 additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 2,685. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Saturday:

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Friday, Sept. 11. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 10, is 680, showing a clear downward trend after peaking in late July at more than 1,200. The number includes 545 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 135 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 177 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 100 were on ventilators.

Source; MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 74,098 through Monday, Sept. 7. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 82.7% of the cumulative 89,620 cases reported as of Saturday, Sept. 12.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Saturday, Aug. 22, was 1,242, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,195, or about 88.4% of the 1,352 cumulative cases reported Saturday, Sept. 12. The county has an estimated 110 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Thursday, Sept. 10, is 650,131 or about 21.8% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 10.4% Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for weeks. The national rate is 5%, indicating adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 136 Saturday. About 41.6%, or 1,118, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. Four of the 15 deaths reported Saturday were residents of LTC facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 10, MSDH reported that two long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Shady Lawn had 13 cases among staff, 33 cases among residents and nine resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had 31 cases among staff, 48 cases among residents and five resident deaths.

A total of 22 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.