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Third spike in COVID-19 cases reported Saturday; seven-day average over 600



With another spike of new COVID-19 cases Saturday, the third in a week, Mississippi’s seven-day average was above 600 for the first time in over a month, further indicating the state may be seeing the beginning of a new surge in cases. Hospitalizations have also continued to rise throughout the week.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported eight new COVID-19 cases in Warren County Saturday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,467, and the county’s death toll is 53.

Statewide, MSDH reported 957 new COVID-19 cases Saturday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 104,638. The seven-day average of new cases is 638, higher by 180 cases from a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Saturday that 16 additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,096. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

MSDH reported Saturday that 10 deaths occurred between Sept. 23 and Oct. 9 in the following counties:

County Deaths reported Saturday
Alcorn 1
George 1
Hancock 1
Montgomery 1
Panola 1
Stone 1
Tippah 1
Washington 2
Winston 1

Six COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1 and were identified from death certificate reports.

County Deaths identified on death certificate reports
Desoto 1
Hinds 1
Lee 1
Madison 1
Panola 1
Scott 1

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 9. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but levelled off at the middle of the month. They continued to drop through Oct. 3; however, they have shown a definite rise this week.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 9, is 600, about half of the late July peak of more than 1,200. The number includes 491 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 109 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 136 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 59 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 90,577 through Sunday, Oct. 4. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 86.6% of the cumulative 104,638 cases reported Saturday, Oct. 10.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Saturday, Sept. 19, was 1,380, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,327, or about 90.5% of the 1,467 cumulative cases reported as of Saturday, Oct. 10. The county has an estimated 87 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Oct. 3, is 863,957 or about 29% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 5.9% Friday according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 4.9%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 126 Saturday. About 40.5%, or 1,254, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

A total of 25 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Sept. 27.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.

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