No new COVID-19 deaths were reported in Mississippi Monday.
The Mississippi State Department of Health reported four new COVID-19 cases in Warren County Sunday, no new cases Monday and one new death. The death reported Sunday occurred Sept. 3 and was identified from a death certificate report. The deceased was a resident at a long-term care facility. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,431, and the county’s death toll is 51.
Statewide, MSDH reported 321 new COVID-19 cases Sunday and 215 Monday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 100,703. The seven-day average of new cases is 522, about 82.2% of where it was a month ago.
Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.
MSDH reported Sunday that two additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. No new deaths were reported Monday. One death occurred Oct. 2 in Desoto County. The other death reported Sunday occurred in Warren County Sept. 3 and was identified from a death certificate report. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,013. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.
New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 3, for Sunday and Sunday, Oct. 4, for Monday. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.
The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but levelled off at the middle of the month. They continued to drop in October.
The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 2, is 515, less than half of the late July peak of more than 1,200. The number includes 412 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 103 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 132 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 69 were on ventilators.
MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 89,737 through Sunday, Sept. 27. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 89.1% of the cumulative 100,703 cases reported Monday, Oct. 5.
The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Monday, Sept. 14, was 1,354, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,303, or about 91% of the 1,432 cumulative cases reported as of Monday, Oct. 5. The county has an estimated 78 active cases.
These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).
The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Oct. 3, is 863,957 or about 29% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 43% Saturday according to Johns Hopkins University, probably as a result of the MSDH not reporting daily numbers. It could also indicate the state is not testing enough and case counts are probably underreported. Mississippi’s positivity rate had been the highest or among the highest in the nation for weeks. The national rate is 4.6% and 5% indicates adequate testing.
The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 122 Monday. About 40.8%, or 1,228, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.
A total of 25 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.
MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Sept. 20.
For additional information, visit the MSDH website.