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COVID-19

New COVID-19 cases spike in Warren County on the third day of 2,000+ cases in Mississippi

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There is little good news Friday regarding the latest surge in COVID-19 across the nation.

New COVID-19 cases are seeing a spike Friday in Warren County with 46 cases reported. This is the highest number of cases since early August, and the third highest one-day count since the crises began.

Mississippi is reporting a third consecutive day of more than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases Friday, the 10th consecutive day of reporting more than 1,000 cases. The state’s seven-day average of new cases is now nearing 1,900 per day, with 13,129 new cases reported in the last week. The highest seven-day average in July was around 1,360 for the week ending July 30.

Hospitalizations are nearing the July high of around 1,250. Unlike the July surge, however, more patients are hospitalized with confirmed cases than ever before in the state.

Nationally, the cumulative cases in the U.S. have soared to top 14 million. At least 2,857 people died of the virus Thursday and 216,548 new cases were reported. While some progress in lowering case numbers had been seen in the Midwest recently, cases continue to surge almost everywhere else in the country. The number of people hospitalized across the nation now exceeds 100,000.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported 46 new COVID-19 cases Friday — the highest number since Aug. 8 when 56 cases were reported — and one new death. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,895, and the county’s death toll is 59. The seven-day average of new cases in the county has risen to 20.3, about four times higher than in early November.

Statewide, MSDH reported 2,480 new COVID-19 cases Friday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 161,516. The seven-day average of new cases is 1,875.6 per day, about 1,211 cases higher — nearly triple — than the seven-day average a month ago, when the state’s numbers were already on the rise. The current averages exceed the numbers seen at the height of the last surge in July.

At the beginning of the crises, the age group with the most COVID-19 cases were those over 65. Now, most new cases are seen in younger people who are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. In September, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi were 18 to 24 years old. That has shifted to a slightly older group. In November, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are from 25 to 39 years old followed by those 50 to 64 years old.

MSDH reported Friday that 37 more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,916. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.5%. This rate has dropped as the number of cases are going up faster than the number of deaths at this time.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day in Mississippi was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Of the 37 deaths MSDH reported Friday, 23 occurred between Nov. 26 and Dec. 3 in the following counties:

County Deaths reported Friday
Attala 1
Alcorn 1
Attala 1
Bolivar 1
Clarke 1
Copiah 1
Covington 1
Greene 1
Harrison 1
Jackson 3
Lauderdale 2
Leflore 1
Madison 1
Neshoba 2
Perry 1
Prentiss 1
Rankin 2
Simpson 1
Warren 1

An additional 14 COVID-19 related deaths occurred from Nov. 10 to Nov. 29 and were identified from death certificate reports.

County Deaths identified from death certificate reports
Attala 1
George 1
Hinds 2
Jefferson Davis 1
Kemper 1
Lafayette 1
Lee 1
Lowndes 1
Madison 1
Oktibbeha 1
Panola 1
Prentiss 1
Sunflower 1
Yazoo 1

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 3. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations tripled by late July.

Hospitalizations then steadily dropped through Oct. 3 when they began rising again along with increased cases. The last week in October, hospitalizations began levelling off; however, since Nov. 4 hospitals have seen a steady rise in COVID-19 patients once again.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 2, was 1,135, about 97% of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 1,052 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 108 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 277 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 137 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 128,746 through Sunday, Nov. 29. It represents about 80% of the cumulative 161,516 cases reported as of Friday, Dec. 4.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Friday, Nov. 13, was 1,638, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,579, or about 83.3% of the 1,895 cumulative cases reported as of Friday, Dec. 4. The county has an estimated 257 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Nov. 28, is 1,315,279 or about 44.2% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. MSDH reports statewide test results once a week. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the estimated rate was 24.9% Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 10.7%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 194 Friday, an increase of six since Thursday. About 37.6%, or 1,474, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities is 7,928, less than 5% of the state’s total cases.

A total of 27 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data by provider here. The latest data available is for the week ending Nov. 22.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.

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