The rate of new COVID-19 cases has begun to drop in America’s Midwest for the first time in about two months, although the raw numbers are still much higher than they have been since the beginning of the crises. The nation’s hot spots are shifting from Wisconsin and the Dakotas to California, Texas and big East Coast and southern cities such as Baltimore and Miami.
The national seven-day average of new cases is about 165,000. While still incredibly high, it’s down from nearly 180,000 per day in the past week. At least 1,178 people died of the virus on Thanksgiving Day.
The Mississippi State Department of Health reported another day of more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases Friday.
In Warren County, MSDH reported 12 new COVID-19 cases Friday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,753, and the county’s death toll is 57.
Statewide, MSDH reported 1,005 new COVID-19 cases Friday bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 148,387. The seven-day average of new cases is 1,137 per day, about 381 cases higher than the seven-day average a month ago and on par with numbers seen in July.
At the beginning of the crises, the age group with the most COVID-19 cases were those over 65. Now, most new cases are seen in younger people who are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. In September, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi were 18 to 24 years old. That has shifted to a slightly older group. In November, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are from 25 to 39 years old followed by those 50 to 64 years old.
MSDH reported Friday that six more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,769. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.5%. This rate has dropped as the number of cases are going up faster than the number of deaths at this time.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day in Mississippi was 67 reported Aug. 25.
The six deaths MSDH reported Friday occurred between Nov.25 and Nov. 26 in the following counties:
|County||Deaths reported Friday|
New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 26. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.
The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations tripled by late July.
Hospitalizations then steadily dropped through Oct. 3 when they began rising again along with increased cases. The last week in October, hospitalizations began levelling off; however, since Nov. 4 hospitals have seen a steady rise in COVID-19 patients once again.
The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 24, was 1,039, about 87% of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 942 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 97 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 245 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 113 were on ventilators.
MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 121,637 through Sunday, Nov. 22. It represents about 82% of the cumulative 148,387 cases reported as of Friday, Nov. 27.
The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Friday, Nov. 6, was 1,606, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,549, or about 88.4% of the 1,753 cumulative cases reported as of Friday, Nov. 27. The county has an estimated 147 active cases.
These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).
The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Nov. 21, is 1,237,802 or about 41.6% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. MSDH reports statewide test results once a week. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the estimated rate was 17.6% Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 9.5%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.
The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities was 193 Friday, the same number as Thursday. About 37.9%, or 1,430, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities is 7,586, about 5.1% of the state’s total cases.
A total of 26 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.
MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data by provider here. The latest data available is for the week ending Nov. 15.
For additional information, visit the MSDH website.