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COVID-19

COVID-19 numbers in Mississippi continue to demonstrate a flattening of the curve

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The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, including those critically ill and on ventilators, continues to drop statewide, showing a positive flattening of the curve. Tuesday is the 27th consecutive day of fewer than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases reported statewide.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported six new COVID-19 cases Tuesday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 1,360, and the county’s death toll is 48.

Statewide, MSDH reported 505 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 90,523. The seven-day average of new cases is 449, about 60% of where it was a month ago.

MSDH reported Tuesday that 28 additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide and another nine Tuesday. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 2,734. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Tuesday:

County Deaths reported Tuesday
Bolivar 2
Covington 1
Grenada 1
Harrison 2
Hinds 1
Holmes 1
Jefferson Davis 1
Jones 1
Lauderdale 3
Leake 2
Lee 1
Marion 1
Montgomery 1
Oktibbeha 1
Perry 1
Pontotoc 1
Rankin 1
Scott 1
Smith 1
Walthall 1
Yalobusha 1
Yazoo 2

New cases and deaths were reported as of 6 p.m. Monday, Sept. 14. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 13, is 667, showing a clear downward trend after peaking in late July at more than 1,200. The number includes 524 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 143 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 177 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 88 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 78,971 through Sunday, Sept. 13. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 87.2% of the cumulative 90,523 cases reported as of Tuesday, Sept. 15.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Tuesday, Aug. 25, was 1,274, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,226, or about 90% of the 1,360 cumulative cases reported Tuesday, Sept. 15. The county has an estimated 86 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Sunday, Sept. 13, is 658,994 or about 22.1% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 10.4% Monday, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for weeks. The national rate is 4.8%, indicating adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 138 Tuesday. About 41.5%, or 1,135, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 10, MSDH reported that two long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

  • Shady Lawn had 13 cases among staff, 33 cases among residents and nine resident deaths.
  • The Bluffs had 31 cases among staff, 48 cases among residents and five resident deaths.

A total of 23 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.

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